As far as the options backdating and AAPL goes, I honestly don't think it will lead to Jobs' resignation. However, I think Jobs' departure is already priced in, not because of the options, but because the company has been mum about his pancreatic cancer a couple years ago. If they're not talking, you have to anticipate that he could drop dead any day now. Not that he necessarily will, but if he's not vocal about having a clean bill of health, you have to assume otherwise.
In other words, don't worry about the options scandal; a lot of investors have already envisioned an AAPL without Jobs.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
MSFT, hackers n' ads
Two news bits for MSFT:
1) Vista apparently has more holes than Swiss cheese. Security holes, that is. I won't elaborate because we all expect this from Microsoft.
2) More interestingly, they're planning to make their ads a little bit smarter, much as Google has done; if you use their Live search and their Hotmail (does anyone use either of these products?) expect to start seeing ads targeted to your demographics and interests soon. At present, they're giving advertisers a promotional credit to encourage signups.
I am not sure Microsoft has done anything original, ever. Windows and DOS were ripped off from Apple and Xerox, and nowadays they're just copying Google. Did they not get the memo that Google's growth is slowing down?
1) Vista apparently has more holes than Swiss cheese. Security holes, that is. I won't elaborate because we all expect this from Microsoft.
2) More interestingly, they're planning to make their ads a little bit smarter, much as Google has done; if you use their Live search and their Hotmail (does anyone use either of these products?) expect to start seeing ads targeted to your demographics and interests soon. At present, they're giving advertisers a promotional credit to encourage signups.
I am not sure Microsoft has done anything original, ever. Windows and DOS were ripped off from Apple and Xerox, and nowadays they're just copying Google. Did they not get the memo that Google's growth is slowing down?
Pinochet Pantyhose
A few days old, but Target caved to pressure from the WSJ, IBD and others to remove a Che Guevara item from their shelves. Link.
"What next? Hitler backpacks? Pol Pot cookware? Pinochet pantyhose?" wrote Investor's Business Daily in an editorial earlier this month, citing the Guevara case as a model of "tyrant-chic."
Even the left is happy with the decision, saying Che would never have approved of his mug appearing on Target swag. Incidentally, the Che in the Target image had a pair of headphones photoshopped under his natty beret; what do you think he would've been listening to? Rage Against The Machine is probably a little too corporate for him, as well. Maybe Che would've been a This Bike Is A Pipe Bomb fan. Who knows.
"What next? Hitler backpacks? Pol Pot cookware? Pinochet pantyhose?" wrote Investor's Business Daily in an editorial earlier this month, citing the Guevara case as a model of "tyrant-chic."
Even the left is happy with the decision, saying Che would never have approved of his mug appearing on Target swag. Incidentally, the Che in the Target image had a pair of headphones photoshopped under his natty beret; what do you think he would've been listening to? Rage Against The Machine is probably a little too corporate for him, as well. Maybe Che would've been a This Bike Is A Pipe Bomb fan. Who knows.
Saks: Can A New Look Attract Private Equity?
Saks -- well, they've been streamlining left and right, haven't they? Dumping their less profitable chains, spewing out cash via special dividends -- they're a lean, mean luxury retail machine at this point...
In January, they'll be unveilng a new logo. Kind of MoMA, abstract, eye-catching. Check it out:
Says Pentagram, the firm who did the design work: "We took the cursive logo, redrew it with the help of font designer Joe Finocchiaro, and placed it in a black square. Then, we subdivided that square into a grid of 64 smaller squares."
Funky ain't it? They've never had much in the way of branding; their logo has changed constantly over the years. Who knows how long this ultramodern take on it will hang around, but hopefully long enough to get them a bid. With a market cap of 2.5bn, and luxury biz still solid, I consider them a buyout target.
In January, they'll be unveilng a new logo. Kind of MoMA, abstract, eye-catching. Check it out:
Says Pentagram, the firm who did the design work: "We took the cursive logo, redrew it with the help of font designer Joe Finocchiaro, and placed it in a black square. Then, we subdivided that square into a grid of 64 smaller squares."
Funky ain't it? They've never had much in the way of branding; their logo has changed constantly over the years. Who knows how long this ultramodern take on it will hang around, but hopefully long enough to get them a bid. With a market cap of 2.5bn, and luxury biz still solid, I consider them a buyout target.
Saturday, December 23, 2006
The Beta Tester Investor: MSFT Thoughts
I've been beta testing both Office 2007 and Windows Vista for my employer. I would like to articulate a few thoughts:
Office 2007 is a decent product... good, even. It takes most of the pulldown-menu actions you'd typically perform and renders them as modular selections in a "ribbon" at the top of the page. It has enhanced collaboration abilities and seems fairly stable. It also does its very best to create documents in a format incompatible with previous versions of Office.
Vista, however... while corporate users could afford to upgrade their computers to the specs necessary to run it, it's not targeted to them. It's targeted to home users who don't know how to keep viruses and spyware out of their system. Aero looks slick, but does anyone really need 3-D and transparent windowing?
If Vista is in widespread use a year from now I will be surprised. Office 2007 has more potential and is a worthwhile upgrade if you have a moderately powerful system. If you think either one will catch on, I recommend investing in the companies who will benefit most from users upgrading their systems. MSFT's market cap has increased a lot over the last six months. A jump from 25 to 29-30 is a big deal in a stock with this many shares outstanding.
Office 2007 is a decent product... good, even. It takes most of the pulldown-menu actions you'd typically perform and renders them as modular selections in a "ribbon" at the top of the page. It has enhanced collaboration abilities and seems fairly stable. It also does its very best to create documents in a format incompatible with previous versions of Office.
Vista, however... while corporate users could afford to upgrade their computers to the specs necessary to run it, it's not targeted to them. It's targeted to home users who don't know how to keep viruses and spyware out of their system. Aero looks slick, but does anyone really need 3-D and transparent windowing?
If Vista is in widespread use a year from now I will be surprised. Office 2007 has more potential and is a worthwhile upgrade if you have a moderately powerful system. If you think either one will catch on, I recommend investing in the companies who will benefit most from users upgrading their systems. MSFT's market cap has increased a lot over the last six months. A jump from 25 to 29-30 is a big deal in a stock with this many shares outstanding.
Liquid Assets
And no, I'm not going to post that little song about the world being awash in liquidity because I know you've already heard it...
Reuters reports investing in wine is all the rage at the moment, mostly in Bordeaux and not just in the futures; cellars are filling up case by case at every hedgie home in Greenwich and surrounding neighborhoods.
As it says in the article, it's like art but in order to enjoy it, you have to destroy it. Maybe it's not a bad idea to invest in something for which demand will stay roughly stable but supply will necessarily dwindle.
Reuters reports investing in wine is all the rage at the moment, mostly in Bordeaux and not just in the futures; cellars are filling up case by case at every hedgie home in Greenwich and surrounding neighborhoods.
As it says in the article, it's like art but in order to enjoy it, you have to destroy it. Maybe it's not a bad idea to invest in something for which demand will stay roughly stable but supply will necessarily dwindle.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Another Type Of Agricultural Commodity
From today's DR:
"In Europe, drugs are less expensive than beer or café," says a headline article in La Nacion. "An ecstasy pill costs the same as a of beer," the article explains. "A line of cocaine is less than a cup of coffee."
Everything else may be going up. But there's a major deflation in drug prices. Marijuana is down 12% in the last five years. Heroin prices are off 45%. Amphetamines have gone down 20%.
How come?
Globalization. Better supply chain management. More competition and across-border movement.
Interestingly, this report comes from Reuters today: "Marijuana top U.S. cash crop."
"U.S. growers produce nearly $35 billion worth of marijuana annually, making the illegal drug the country's largest cash crop, bigger than corn and wheat combined, an advocate of medical marijuana use said in a study released on Monday."
"In Europe, drugs are less expensive than beer or café," says a headline article in La Nacion. "An ecstasy pill costs the same as a of beer," the article explains. "A line of cocaine is less than a cup of coffee."
Everything else may be going up. But there's a major deflation in drug prices. Marijuana is down 12% in the last five years. Heroin prices are off 45%. Amphetamines have gone down 20%.
How come?
Globalization. Better supply chain management. More competition and across-border movement.
Interestingly, this report comes from Reuters today: "Marijuana top U.S. cash crop."
"U.S. growers produce nearly $35 billion worth of marijuana annually, making the illegal drug the country's largest cash crop, bigger than corn and wheat combined, an advocate of medical marijuana use said in a study released on Monday."
Thursday, December 07, 2006
It's Gonna Be An H-Bomb Christmas
Arnold, in California, #1 uses an *X-mas* tree, #2 powers it with the alternative energy favorite of the business right, *hydrogen*.
Here's how I imagine his speech went:
"Here in Cally-fournya, it is full of hippies who wanted an alternative fuel winter display. So I picked a Christmas tree that uses hydrogen cells to spit on the other winter holidays, if there are any. Are there any, Maria? Oh, yes. Boxing Day. Boxing Day is fine. Unlike Boxing Day, Hydrogen is abundant on Earth. I will lead the charge to mine it from the moon, as well, and perhaps cut a trench that looks like Ronald Reagan. Also, Maria has just passed me a memo that my speech has been too pro-Christy-annie-ty. When I'm done giving her the 'you need a boob job' look, I'll respond. (significant pause) Okay...wait... (pause) Okay. In order to pacify the girly men, we will balance by selecting carols that do not endorse Christmas. Who knows 'Swarm of Rats?' "
Story
Hydrogen's been the quietest of the alternative energies thusfar, I think.
Here's how I imagine his speech went:
"Here in Cally-fournya, it is full of hippies who wanted an alternative fuel winter display. So I picked a Christmas tree that uses hydrogen cells to spit on the other winter holidays, if there are any. Are there any, Maria? Oh, yes. Boxing Day. Boxing Day is fine. Unlike Boxing Day, Hydrogen is abundant on Earth. I will lead the charge to mine it from the moon, as well, and perhaps cut a trench that looks like Ronald Reagan. Also, Maria has just passed me a memo that my speech has been too pro-Christy-annie-ty. When I'm done giving her the 'you need a boob job' look, I'll respond. (significant pause) Okay...wait... (pause) Okay. In order to pacify the girly men, we will balance by selecting carols that do not endorse Christmas. Who knows 'Swarm of Rats?' "
Story
Hydrogen's been the quietest of the alternative energies thusfar, I think.
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Silly Investor, Seagate Is For Porn
At a recent corporate dinner in San Francisco, the Texan CEO produced a quotable line edgy enough to give any PR people in the immediate vicinity an instant heart attack. In his exact words: "Let's face it, we're not changing the world. We're building a product that helps people buy more crap - and watch porn."
Or, as he puts it more diplomatically when sober, it's the content that's important.
Story Link
Or, as he puts it more diplomatically when sober, it's the content that's important.
Story Link