I was linked this morning to a disaster-managment site of sorts called Protecting America. Sponsors include Allstate and a host of other insurers and contingency planners, along with several companies like AT&T who probably wouldn't mind receiving a few government bucks to rebuild infrastructure.
The site's front page encourages me to send a pre-scripted letter to my congressman indicating there's just not enough "government and non-profit disaster relief" to go around and that the government should do more. It's the "prompt and caring" thing to do!
Further: "Catastrophe funds, at both the federal and state levels, would provide the backstop necessary for companies to insure against hurricanes and earthquakes in a financially responsible manner that doesn't threaten their solvency or their ability to protect their customers from other potential losses." If the prospect of managing risks threatens your solvency or leaves you unable to protect your customers, why are you in the business of managing risks? Shouldn't you be managing a McDonald's instead?
Monday, August 28, 2006
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Losing Backstreet Boys Cash To The Housing Bubble?
While they aren't selling, condos are still going up all over downtown Orlando, and from what I hear, everywhere else as well:
That the glut of units on the market now will soon be a deluge really isn't news to anyone, but what I do find interesting to note is who might be relying on the assumption that these units will be occupied, and not only that -- additionally assuming the occupants will be able to afford more than their mortgage.
Orlando has little in the way of sophisticated nightlife (if you've never been here, we have a nightclub bearing Paris Hilton's name, and that should say it all), so we were pleasantly surprised to discover The Exchange Lounge downtown, which features a cigar and wine bar upstairs. The space is decorated like an old boys' club, and the bartender indicated the third floor will soon be a champagne room.
Sadly, we were the only patrons in the joint. The bartender said this was a typical state of affairs, but not to be concerned; it'd been opened nine months prior and was funded by Backstreet Boys' manager Lou Pearlman's deep pockets, as is most of the refurbishment of Church Street. Lou firmly believes that once construction is finished on all of these condo buildings downtown, he'll have plenty of patrons.
To Lou's credit, Pearl's -- the steakhouse adjacent which bears a portion of his last name -- appears quite popular. I hope he's right because I rather like this lounge, but I strongly believe his assumptions are flawed.
That the glut of units on the market now will soon be a deluge really isn't news to anyone, but what I do find interesting to note is who might be relying on the assumption that these units will be occupied, and not only that -- additionally assuming the occupants will be able to afford more than their mortgage.
Orlando has little in the way of sophisticated nightlife (if you've never been here, we have a nightclub bearing Paris Hilton's name, and that should say it all), so we were pleasantly surprised to discover The Exchange Lounge downtown, which features a cigar and wine bar upstairs. The space is decorated like an old boys' club, and the bartender indicated the third floor will soon be a champagne room.
Sadly, we were the only patrons in the joint. The bartender said this was a typical state of affairs, but not to be concerned; it'd been opened nine months prior and was funded by Backstreet Boys' manager Lou Pearlman's deep pockets, as is most of the refurbishment of Church Street. Lou firmly believes that once construction is finished on all of these condo buildings downtown, he'll have plenty of patrons.
To Lou's credit, Pearl's -- the steakhouse adjacent which bears a portion of his last name -- appears quite popular. I hope he's right because I rather like this lounge, but I strongly believe his assumptions are flawed.
Friday, August 11, 2006
GM Unveils New Camaro
Now, we just have to wait for GM to unveil the new mullet. They should have a contest among the factory workers.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
A New Airline Stock Play
Can't take your liquids onboard and too busy to wait hours for checked baggage? If you're traveling for business, FedEx your toothpaste, hair gel, and contact lens cleaner to your destination, and expense it.
Might be a stock play there. Cough.
Might be a stock play there. Cough.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
Please Tell Me White Owl Cohibas Aren't Next
On August 3rd, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office stripped the Cuban government and its French liaison of rights to the "Havana Club" rum brand name in the US. Bacardi will be imminently relaunching rum under the name.
This was the denouement of a ten-year battle, so perhaps it's coincidental timing to Castro wheezing up a lung or whatever is wrong with him at the moment. But, it's worth noting that Fidel's possibly impending demise could change the economy of the island, perhaps even ending the embargo, and that a few U.S. products might suffer from the competition.
This was the denouement of a ten-year battle, so perhaps it's coincidental timing to Castro wheezing up a lung or whatever is wrong with him at the moment. But, it's worth noting that Fidel's possibly impending demise could change the economy of the island, perhaps even ending the embargo, and that a few U.S. products might suffer from the competition.
Friday, July 28, 2006
Bowling Alone on YouTube
I could use this space to talk about YouTube's IPO aspirations, but that's really a limited subject until they give me any sign they're going to turn a profit. Instead, I'll point out this article on the "1% rule":
1% of visitors to any "interactive" site actually create content (Guardian)
Using numbers from YouTube, Yahoo Groups and Wikipedia, the article suggests that slightly less than 1% of users on these sites will create content, around 10% will offer comments or suggestions, and the other 89% will view passively. Obviously, you want a balance of all of these groups; if YouTube has 20 million unique users, having all of them create videos would result in much banality and duplication.
The group probably most essential to survival is the creators, and the question is how to get the creators to stick around; my suggestion would be to fully embrace the blatant role of comment-whoring as a motivator, and look for strategies to get the 89% of passive users to become active participants at the comment level -- yielding sincere, organic motivation for your creators.
1% of visitors to any "interactive" site actually create content (Guardian)
Using numbers from YouTube, Yahoo Groups and Wikipedia, the article suggests that slightly less than 1% of users on these sites will create content, around 10% will offer comments or suggestions, and the other 89% will view passively. Obviously, you want a balance of all of these groups; if YouTube has 20 million unique users, having all of them create videos would result in much banality and duplication.
The group probably most essential to survival is the creators, and the question is how to get the creators to stick around; my suggestion would be to fully embrace the blatant role of comment-whoring as a motivator, and look for strategies to get the 89% of passive users to become active participants at the comment level -- yielding sincere, organic motivation for your creators.
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Profits, Cheek By Jowl
I feel a little bad for Lee Raymond -- even though he's no longer CEO of Exxon, this morning Drudge ran the infamous "massive goiter" picture of him with the story about Exxon's record profits:
You know, if the Sidney Reso case had happened recently someone would be running pictures of Sid's corpse with the caption "SHEDDING BLOOD FOR EXXON OIL MONEY" under it.
You know, if the Sidney Reso case had happened recently someone would be running pictures of Sid's corpse with the caption "SHEDDING BLOOD FOR EXXON OIL MONEY" under it.
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Credit Is The New Housing
Yesterday the FDIC released a whopping 29-page report about future credit losses by banks. It really shouldn't take 29 pages to say "what goes up must come down." The more eloquent terminology for this would be "inflection point," because despite recent increases in commercial loan growth, it's unlikely to sufficiently compensate for the oncoming decreases in consumer loan growth.
Additionally, think of the cash on hand at most firms! You expect commercial loan growth to even come close to making up for consumers?
You realize people (me included) have been screaming this for a while now, kinda like the housing bubble where some people (me included) were blithering about its demise a year or two before it actually started to happen. It's hard to call a top, but that's what the FDIC is doing. Analysts are now rushing to release reports saying "yeah, they're right. This will happen -- eventually," because that's what analysts do, and they'll be right -- eventually.
Additionally, think of the cash on hand at most firms! You expect commercial loan growth to even come close to making up for consumers?
You realize people (me included) have been screaming this for a while now, kinda like the housing bubble where some people (me included) were blithering about its demise a year or two before it actually started to happen. It's hard to call a top, but that's what the FDIC is doing. Analysts are now rushing to release reports saying "yeah, they're right. This will happen -- eventually," because that's what analysts do, and they'll be right -- eventually.
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Calvin Ayre's Crystal Ball
I was bored last night since I couldn't go out in the rain, so I looked at bodog.com to see what current events you could bet on. (I'm not a gambler and had to teach myself how to read a moneyline in order to even know what the hell was going on.) Most of them are end-of-2006 type things, but this one caught my eye:
Bet On: Will US President George Bush end his boycott of the NAACP and make a speech at the group's national convention?
It worked out to roughly 2:1 odds in favor of him choosing to speak. (No odds are available on whether or not he will give Louis Farrakhan a neckrub anytime soon.) Sure enough, I checked Drudge this morning and there was an announcement that Bush plans to do it.
When I think "accurate predictor of future events" I don't really think of Calvin Ayre and his Playboy Mansion compound in Costa Rica, but I do like to see futures markets make accurate predictions. DARPA wanted to do this to help predict terrorist attacks. Cal's apparently not touching that one with a ten-foot pole but he's got a few items on his site about closing Guantanamo and whether or not UBL or Hoffa will have their head found first.
I think he should let us bet on whether or not if he ever returns to the US again he'll get nabbed like the BetOnSports guy.
Bet On: Will US President George Bush end his boycott of the NAACP and make a speech at the group's national convention?
It worked out to roughly 2:1 odds in favor of him choosing to speak. (No odds are available on whether or not he will give Louis Farrakhan a neckrub anytime soon.) Sure enough, I checked Drudge this morning and there was an announcement that Bush plans to do it.
When I think "accurate predictor of future events" I don't really think of Calvin Ayre and his Playboy Mansion compound in Costa Rica, but I do like to see futures markets make accurate predictions. DARPA wanted to do this to help predict terrorist attacks. Cal's apparently not touching that one with a ten-foot pole but he's got a few items on his site about closing Guantanamo and whether or not UBL or Hoffa will have their head found first.
I think he should let us bet on whether or not if he ever returns to the US again he'll get nabbed like the BetOnSports guy.
Friday, July 14, 2006
Goldman Is The Sex
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the blue chip investment bank, wants a Netherlands man to change the name of a sex-themed Web site called goldmansex.com.
Link
The owner's last name isn't even Goldman -- it's Muller -- and he claims he got the nickname "Goldman" based on his overall luckiness. I think he's full of shit, especially after looking at the site and noticing he supposedly caters to business travelers. You have to wonder, though, if Goldman Sachs will prevail in this lawsuit. How likely is anyone to be confused and think that GS is in the business of providing strippers and escorts? Well, I mean, now that David Pacjin is off the payroll...
Link
The owner's last name isn't even Goldman -- it's Muller -- and he claims he got the nickname "Goldman" based on his overall luckiness. I think he's full of shit, especially after looking at the site and noticing he supposedly caters to business travelers. You have to wonder, though, if Goldman Sachs will prevail in this lawsuit. How likely is anyone to be confused and think that GS is in the business of providing strippers and escorts? Well, I mean, now that David Pacjin is off the payroll...
Thursday, July 13, 2006
The De Minimis Turkey Leg Exception
Wal-Mart, who formerly prosecuted anyone who stole more than $3 worth of merchandise, is raising the threshold to $25: Link to CNNMoney story
"The paper said the change in policy will allow Wal-Mart to concentrate on theft by professional shoplifters and its own employees. The paper said those two groups steal the bulk of merchandise from the chain."
Makes economic sense, though it can't ever be good to have the de minimis amount publicized like this. Honestly, there's not much at your average Wal-Mart that would fit in your coat that's priced OVER $25; it's almost like giving compulsive shoplifters license to do whatever.
"The paper said the change in policy will allow Wal-Mart to concentrate on theft by professional shoplifters and its own employees. The paper said those two groups steal the bulk of merchandise from the chain."
Makes economic sense, though it can't ever be good to have the de minimis amount publicized like this. Honestly, there's not much at your average Wal-Mart that would fit in your coat that's priced OVER $25; it's almost like giving compulsive shoplifters license to do whatever.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Haute Topic
Today's WSJ mentioned Hot Topic as a potential target to be taken private. They said it might happen if goth fashion came back in.
It's hard to get more darque than the "pre-spring 2007" collections I'm seeing. A sample, this from Givenchy:
Their balance sheets are pretty clean, I think. It's a consideration.
It's hard to get more darque than the "pre-spring 2007" collections I'm seeing. A sample, this from Givenchy:
Their balance sheets are pretty clean, I think. It's a consideration.
FT Axes Internets Division
The Financial Times, in a cost-cutting move, cuts 50 from their staff and now expects writers to produce content for both the print and online editions: Link
Their budget for salmon dye, apparently, is unaffected.
Their budget for salmon dye, apparently, is unaffected.
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
When Self Parking Is More Prestigious Than Valet
Those crazy kids at BMW have developed technology that enables a car to park itself. PARALLEL park itself, at that.
Watch the video (YouTube)
In ten years, this will be as ubiquitous as Tiptronic. Oh, wait.
Still, I want it.
Watch the video (YouTube)
In ten years, this will be as ubiquitous as Tiptronic. Oh, wait.
Still, I want it.
Monday, July 10, 2006
ShortAirBus
...puts its head down, ribbits softly, and ponders how to extricate Boeing's schlong from its eye:
Link
PARIS - Airbus said Monday it won 117 plane orders in the first half of the year, less than a quarter of the orders announced to date by U.S. rival Boeing Co.
Orders fell from 276 in the same period of last year, a sharper drop than the broad full-year decline predicted by both jet makers after record sales in 2005.
Note also the speculation that the recent Russian crash was due to faulty brakes: IHT article
No word on whether or not Airbus will surrender their delayed A380 and inefficient A340. You knew I'd sneak a "surrender" joke in here somewhere. Sucks to be EADS, though they did at least sell some copters to the US recently. LBJ probably rolled in his grave at that one.
Link
PARIS - Airbus said Monday it won 117 plane orders in the first half of the year, less than a quarter of the orders announced to date by U.S. rival Boeing Co.
Orders fell from 276 in the same period of last year, a sharper drop than the broad full-year decline predicted by both jet makers after record sales in 2005.
Note also the speculation that the recent Russian crash was due to faulty brakes: IHT article
No word on whether or not Airbus will surrender their delayed A380 and inefficient A340. You knew I'd sneak a "surrender" joke in here somewhere. Sucks to be EADS, though they did at least sell some copters to the US recently. LBJ probably rolled in his grave at that one.
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
License and Registration
In China, certain license plate numbers are fetching big bucks.
Communism was never able to quash superstition, and now, the more 8's you have in your license plate or phone number, the more valuable it is. Combine that superstition with the rush of status-symbol vanity among the world's newest crop of pseudocapitalists, and you have plates going at government auction for $10,000 (and, supposedly, in the secondary market, some being offered at $100,000).
A recent WSJ article mentioned a marriage boom-bust cycle going on in China right now related to lucky and unlucky years, so the media is really trying to drill home this point. They're superstitious, okay? List your business contact address as 444 4th St., or incorporate in the Year of the Rooster, and you won't be able to sell a gat-damn thing in China. Got it?
Of course, in America the number 4 is the best number. Well, it is when you hold down the shift key on your keyboard and press it...
Communism was never able to quash superstition, and now, the more 8's you have in your license plate or phone number, the more valuable it is. Combine that superstition with the rush of status-symbol vanity among the world's newest crop of pseudocapitalists, and you have plates going at government auction for $10,000 (and, supposedly, in the secondary market, some being offered at $100,000).
A recent WSJ article mentioned a marriage boom-bust cycle going on in China right now related to lucky and unlucky years, so the media is really trying to drill home this point. They're superstitious, okay? List your business contact address as 444 4th St., or incorporate in the Year of the Rooster, and you won't be able to sell a gat-damn thing in China. Got it?
Of course, in America the number 4 is the best number. Well, it is when you hold down the shift key on your keyboard and press it...
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Wal-Mart: Your Meal Break Is In My Pants
Bag boy: Hey, employer, you didn't give me a toy with
my worker fun meal. In California I get a toy with my
fun meal! Oh, and a nap -- I want a nap and a toy.
Wal-Mart: Shut up and get back to work.
Bag boy: Court, we're in California. I want my toy and
a nap.
Court: Wal-Mart, you're sanctioned ~$200MM for this
atrocity.
Bag boy: Ha ha! Now give me my toy.
Wal-Mart: Shut up and get back to work.
http://biz.yahoo.com/law/060629/7b22029f26ec66e33efb3cb204327f33.html?.v=1
my worker fun meal. In California I get a toy with my
fun meal! Oh, and a nap -- I want a nap and a toy.
Wal-Mart: Shut up and get back to work.
Bag boy: Court, we're in California. I want my toy and
a nap.
Court: Wal-Mart, you're sanctioned ~$200MM for this
atrocity.
Bag boy: Ha ha! Now give me my toy.
Wal-Mart: Shut up and get back to work.
http://biz.yahoo.com/law/060629/7b22029f26ec66e33efb3cb204327f33.html?.v=1
Ya Want Some Cake?
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Share price as of Tuesday's close: $27.74
Share price now: $25.69
Percent change: -7.4%
Volume: 3.5 million shares, daily average 1.4 million
We've been to the Cheesecake Factory a couple of times lately. The portion sizes are absolutely massive; after ordering appetizers (stuff like potstickers and chicken satay, always served up by the boatload) we were, invariably, too full to think about the entree list, and generally not even still hungry enough to split a slice of their rich, decadent cheesecake.
Generally, any refusal of entrees or dessert led the waiters to look at us as if we'd slapped them in the face. I couldn't tell if they were desperate for tips or thought we were suffering from anorexia. We had been wondering if anyone had the appetite -- or expandable pants -- necessary to make it through a full meal with dessert there. Based on their recent results, I guess not.
They also have a new concept restaurant, the Grand Lux Cafe. We were in Houston a couple weeks ago and spotted one there across the street from the Galleria. Upon seeing it, I noticed immediately that it looked just like a Cheesecake Factory (the waitress eagerly confirmed). The look and feel, the price point, and the menu are all essentially similar. The portion size was, too, as a dim sum appetizer was enough for us to consider dinner. Decent, but they'd be better off, I think, if their "concept" restaurant were a new concept.
Share price as of Tuesday's close: $27.74
Share price now: $25.69
Percent change: -7.4%
Volume: 3.5 million shares, daily average 1.4 million
We've been to the Cheesecake Factory a couple of times lately. The portion sizes are absolutely massive; after ordering appetizers (stuff like potstickers and chicken satay, always served up by the boatload) we were, invariably, too full to think about the entree list, and generally not even still hungry enough to split a slice of their rich, decadent cheesecake.
Generally, any refusal of entrees or dessert led the waiters to look at us as if we'd slapped them in the face. I couldn't tell if they were desperate for tips or thought we were suffering from anorexia. We had been wondering if anyone had the appetite -- or expandable pants -- necessary to make it through a full meal with dessert there. Based on their recent results, I guess not.
They also have a new concept restaurant, the Grand Lux Cafe. We were in Houston a couple weeks ago and spotted one there across the street from the Galleria. Upon seeing it, I noticed immediately that it looked just like a Cheesecake Factory (the waitress eagerly confirmed). The look and feel, the price point, and the menu are all essentially similar. The portion size was, too, as a dim sum appetizer was enough for us to consider dinner. Decent, but they'd be better off, I think, if their "concept" restaurant were a new concept.
Friday, June 23, 2006
You Thought It Was Just GM, Part 2
Ford is now rated as more likely than GM to default on their debts: MSNBC article
Ford is, I think, paying the price for the ambiguity of their plans to return to profitability. GM has taken a lot of flak for all the jobs and plants they've expressed an interest in eliminating, but they know they have to do it or die so they've been extremely up-front about it.
Ford is, I think, paying the price for the ambiguity of their plans to return to profitability. GM has taken a lot of flak for all the jobs and plants they've expressed an interest in eliminating, but they know they have to do it or die so they've been extremely up-front about it.
Thursday, June 22, 2006
We're Bangers And Mash
Vonage asserts it is not toast:
Businessweek article
Their assertion makes some sense, because toast is, generally, hot. With a dead-in-the-water IPO, and shiny new lawsuit from Verizon kicking them in the shins, Vonage is anything but, unless you believe any press is good press.
What hope could they have? The short memory of greedy investors hoping for a rebound, perhaps? Not likely. Deep pockets making a grab like eBay and Skype? Not counting on that, either. In fact, I wouldn't expect anything beyond a fold, and the return of their crappy theme song in five years a'la pets.com's sock puppet, but that's just me.
Businessweek article
Their assertion makes some sense, because toast is, generally, hot. With a dead-in-the-water IPO, and shiny new lawsuit from Verizon kicking them in the shins, Vonage is anything but, unless you believe any press is good press.
What hope could they have? The short memory of greedy investors hoping for a rebound, perhaps? Not likely. Deep pockets making a grab like eBay and Skype? Not counting on that, either. In fact, I wouldn't expect anything beyond a fold, and the return of their crappy theme song in five years a'la pets.com's sock puppet, but that's just me.
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