Yesterday the FDIC released a whopping 29-page report about future credit losses by banks. It really shouldn't take 29 pages to say "what goes up must come down." The more eloquent terminology for this would be "inflection point," because despite recent increases in commercial loan growth, it's unlikely to sufficiently compensate for the oncoming decreases in consumer loan growth.
Additionally, think of the cash on hand at most firms! You expect commercial loan growth to even come close to making up for consumers?
You realize people (me included) have been screaming this for a while now, kinda like the housing bubble where some people (me included) were blithering about its demise a year or two before it actually started to happen. It's hard to call a top, but that's what the FDIC is doing. Analysts are now rushing to release reports saying "yeah, they're right. This will happen -- eventually," because that's what analysts do, and they'll be right -- eventually.
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Does this mean we'll soon hear a lot of whining from consumers with major debt?
We don't already? ;)
WSJ reported today a decrease in the number of credit card offers being mailed out, so it's possible the balance transfers are drying up. Home equity rates are going up and property values have def passed their "point of inflection," so the mortgage-as-ATM is coming to an end. Add that to the rising rates on ARMs, gas prices, etc: and yes, whining, expect it.
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