Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Paul Wolfowitz's Socks





















Darn it all.

DUKE AND DUKE GET THE COMMISSIONS???!!



He's flabbergasted by the crop report, you can tell.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Chicago Tops US Hot Property Spots

Financial Times reports:

Chicago shot to the top of the list of the hottest US office property markets last year as investors flocked from the east and west coasts towards cheaper prices in the Windy City.

The amount of office property changing hands in downtown Chicago soared to more than 26m square foot last year, nearly tripling from the year before, and shooting past midtown Manhattan’s property market, according to data from Cushman and Wakefield, the property services company.

Link

EOP may keep numbers up for 2007, but looking at sheer volume I wouldn't expect a repeat; offices don't get flipped like condos. Well, historically, they haven't. I suppose a new trend could emerge in anything.

Money Honey Piggy Banks

Are your kids the financial type? Do they live and breathe by their Federal Reserve comic books? Maria Bartiromo seems to think at least a few kids who fit this image exist. She's trademarking her "Money Honey" nick for use on children's television, cookie jars, piggy banks and similar swag.

No word on whether Citigroup is providing a first round of financing for the endeavor.

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Hedge Fund Qui Tam

So how do you be a manipulative little hedgie? On the long side, you buy up enough of a company to wheedle your minions onto the board. On the short side, apparently... you bring suit against them on behalf of the US Government. WSJ reports:

Now Greenlight Capital, a fund with a big negative bet on Allied Capital Corp., is breaking into new ground -- the courts.

The $4 billion New York City fund has filed a lawsuit in federal court in Atlanta in the name of the U.S. government claiming that Business Loan Express LLC, a subsidiary of Allied Capital known as BLX, submitted fraudulent loan documents to the Small Business Administration, bilking millions of dollars from the U.S.

The government declined to intervene in November; now, Greenlight is bringing suit in their name. This battle has been going on for five years and it's probably a surprise Greenlight's attorneys didn't do this sooner.


Icahn's Next Buyout Target

Carl Icahn's on Bloomberg right now, and he's speculating on a buyout and breakup of Federated (FD), which might make some sense considering the amount of chafing they've experienced with their Borg-like assimilation of the nation's department stores under the Macy's flagship brand.

Saturday, January 27, 2007

YouTube Revenue Sharing

A rumored idea -- not to be confused with PROFIT sharing, of course, as it's doubtful they have any of those to share -- is coming to fruition. Chad Hurley has announced revenue sharing at YouTube, and while specifics aren't available, you know it breaks down to a cut of the advertising attached to user-uploaded content, assuredly paying very similar to Google AdSense.

Notice I said user-uploaded content and not user-generated content. I am curious as to whether revenue generated from ads attached to what turns out to be copyrighted works will be returned to the copyright holder, negated into the ether or who knows what.

Anyway, expect a deluge of LonelyGirl videos out of this news.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Ford

Record losses again. I didn't bother reading how they accrued them -- I assume they've started paying out the equivalent of Powerball jackpots to retiring employees, not quite sure. It's irrelevant, as the stock didn't move. You'd think that means this news is priced in, but you'd probably be wrong. Every quarter, investors assume "This has to be the worst for Ford, right? It can't get worse from here, so the stock has to go up," then the next quarter it gets worse.

I'd buy puts on this one a couple months out. With reports like this, F is more like a .80 stock than a 8.00 stock. OK, I exaggerate, but my price target is closer to their 52-week low. Or perhaps below that. No disrespect to Alan Mulally, but he's a CEO, not a magician.

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Who Really Wants Cheap Oil?

Democrats or Republicans?

The Republicans have been accused both of pandering to oil interests by allowing prices to rise, and of seeking cheap oil via miscellaneous wars in the Middle East. These statements obviously contradict one another. You can, I suppose, present the evidence that oil prices DID spike during the Bush administration and that cheap, favorable oil leases were granted to the majors; however, now that oil prices are lower (below $60, at least), Bush is proposing a refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Is this to create additional demand in the near term and bolster prices or to offer a safety valve in case of additional price increases? Who knows.

On the Democratic side, you hear calls to either impose a profits tax on large oil companies or to impose a substantial tax on gasoline purchases, which would be used to subsidize various companies investigating alternative energy technologies. The former would potentially decrease supply and raise prices, while the latter artifically raises prices by tax with the hope of decreasing demand.

I don't know who really wants "cheap" oil, at least not for the consumer -- the answer to that is, probably, none of the politicians. However, both sides offer corporate welfare in various forms. Pick your investment accordingly.

Sunday, January 21, 2007

High Fashion Substandard

A note for those associating Chinese imports with poor quality: they are, apparently, taking imports to task for the same flaw.

Top fashion labels declared 'substandard'

January 20, 2007 05:07pm
Article from: Agence France-Presse

CLOTHES from some leading international fashion labels have been declared substandard in China with some containing large levels of a chemicals. Quality control tests were conducted on garments from 40 labels for sale in Shanghai including luxury brands Armani, Burberry, Polo Ralph Lauren, ST Dupont and MaxMara, China's bureau of commerce and industry said.

Of the 59 garments and shoes tested, 25 were declared substandard with some having high levels of formaldehyde, unacceptable amounts of acid (pH) and poor dyes, the bureau said in a notice on its website. All but one of the 25 garments were imported.
Formaldehyde can cause skin rashes, eye irritations, provoke allergies and cause respiratory problems and cancer, in extremely high levels, the notice said. One garment contained twice the amount allowed under regulations, the notice said.

The results will spark concern among retailers and shoppers in China, the world's third-largest consumer of luxury goods after Japan and the United States. About 250 million Chinese are expected to be able to afford luxury goods by 2010, according to leading French pollster the IPSOS Institute.

Other problems include erroneous labelling, with one garment saying it was 20 per cent cashmere, but tests discovered it contained just 1.7 per per cent. The bureau said the clothes would be withdrawn and penalties imposed on the manufacturers.

Gazprom Gets Enviro, Too

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Dell: Would You Like Foliage With That?

From Minyanville:

Dell Unveils New, Environmentally Conscious Cynicism at Consumer Electronics Show

In a speech Tuesday at the Consumer Electronics Show, Dell CEO Michael Dell unveiled the company's new plan to become more "environmentally conscious" by doing nothing except urging its customers and competition to become more environmentally conscious, the New York Times reported.

* According to the New York Times, Dell announced the company would begin a program called "Plant a Tree for Me,” asking customers to donate $2 for every notebook computer they buy and $6 for every desktop PC.
* Customers in the United States will be given the chance to donate when they place an order for a Dell PC, the Times reported.
* Here's the beauty of the program: the company won't itself plant any trees, or donate any money for planting trees, or make any environmentally-friendly changes to the way it manufactures computers and electronics.
* Instead, the company will give the money donated by its customers to the Conservation Fund and the Carbonfund, two nonprofit groups that promote ways to reduce or offset carbon emissions, who will in turn buy and plant trees.
* Dell said the company intends to cover the "administrative costs" of the program, which we estimate could potentially cost the company maybe a hundred bucks or so, probably less.

Currency Meltdown!

Here's a gem for the goldbugs out there. Why rob a bank and take worthless paper money when you can rob a coin show and get metal?

Thieves target rare coins again at Orlando show
Willoughby Mariano and Sarah Lundy

Deputies are searching for a brazen band of masked robbers who stole roughly $4 million in some of the world's rarest coins at knifepoint at a busy luxury hotel on International Drive.

The heist was one of the largest in recent years, a security expert said Tuesday as details of the crime emerged.

The rarest of the stolen booty was a set of 1843 U.S. coins with a history that traces back to President John Tyler. The proof set contains 10 coins from a half penny to a $10 gold piece. Lloyds of London had insured them for $2 million, the coins' custodian said.

The stickup was the latest strike during the Florida United Numismatists' annual coin show and convention, which is one of the largest in the country.

Last year, about $450,000 worth of coins was nabbed by thieves who trailed their victims in at least five different cases up to 100 miles to take their loot.

Convention organizers have since added more security.

"In the last year -- for whatever reason -- it has become more commonplace," numismatists convention coordinator Cindy Wibker said.

"Nobody would have thought they would have been so brazen," said Robert Brueggeman, executive director of the Professional Numismatists Guild and owner of Positive Protection, which coordinated security at the convention.

The owner of the company in custody of the coins during the robbery asked not to be identified because of fear for his and his employees' safety.

The most recent attack took place Saturday in the valet parking line at the Peabody Hotel, while an employee of the Minnesota dealer in charge of the coins unloaded them from the rear of a Nissan Xterra.

A robber wearing a surgical mask and a hooded sweater grabbed the employee from behind, held a double-edged knife to his throat and forced him to the ground, a sheriff's report states.

The hooded man kept witnesses at bay with his knife while two other men, also in surgical masks, helped grab a Samsonite suitcase containing the $2 million set as well as other coins and items from the SUV.

The attackers sped off in a brown Mitsubishi sedan, the report states.

Detectives say it's unclear whether Saturday's heist is linked to last year's thefts, which occurred during the same convention. It's also too early to say whether the robbers are part of an organized ring or the theft was a one-time hit, they said.

The robbery rattled the Minnesota man who was taking care of the coins for their owner. The $2 million coin set was part of only two remaining complete sets of the 1843 coins, which were specially designed for collectors, the custodian said.

When the coins were made, they were polished to a mirror finish and set inside a Moroccan leather case lined with velvet, the custodian said. Coin collecting was rare in those days, so few of these sets were made.

These coins recently become more valuable because the custodian and the coins' owner said they had traced their ownership back to President Tyler -- which could make them the only set presented to a U.S. president. Tyler, who was president from 1841 to 1845, received them from the U.S. mint and subsequently gave them to an employee, the custodian said.

The coins are well-known among coin dealers, so they would be difficult to sell.

"They are instantly recognizable," the custodian said.

A description of the stolen coins was included in an e-mail blitz earlier this week to dealers throughout the country, and the insurance company is offering a reward, the custodian said.

"We are extremely conscious about safety," the coins' custodian said. Coin dealers travel in groups so they are less vulnerable.

Security is a major concern at Florida's coin show, which took place at the Orange County Convention Center. The four-day show attracted 1,750 dealers.

Last year, most thieves opted for less violent means, such as breaking into cars while dealers ate in nearby restaurants. In one case, they followed a victim to Bradenton, where they stole coins by breaking the window of his car while he was in the drivers seat.

Coin-show organizers added more off-duty deputies this year to beef up security at the show. Dealers also could use an underground loading area where the public couldn't see what they were doing or what type of car they were driving. The convention also offered a 24-hour secured room where dealers could store their coins, Wibker said.

"They could pick them up on their way out of town," she added.

In recent years, more coin dealers have opted to use armored carriers to ship their valuables, said Beth Deisher, editor of Coin World magazine.

After Saturday's robbery, even more may choose that route.

"Everyone will probably be much more careful," she said. "People with inventory of this level will probably think much more about using an armored carrier rather than trying to transport this much material themselves."

Sunday, January 07, 2007

Fast Money

The signal-to-noise ratio is about to increase a little bit on the signal side: CNBC is giving the Fast Money boys a DAILY gig, 8PM EST weeknights. I find them to be the most savvy voices on that network. They address not just stocks but also options, commodities and shorts -- all rarities on your average stock-talkie show. I'd rather watch them than Cramer, because while Cramer is entertaining Fast Money has actually made me more money with far less time invested, and that is the highest endorsement I can possibly give. Oh yeah: if you read Minyanville, Macke is one of the five on the show.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Harder Than Chinese Algebra

OK, so it's taken me two months to get around to posting about this article but I still think it's worth a mention. From Forbes:

Great Expectations
By Peter Beller | Nov 13 '06
Selling penis-enlargement pills made Steven Warshak rich. Charging $100 million to hapless customers' credit cards got him indicted. You've probably seen the commercials for Enzyte with the Ward Cleaver-ish pitchman, Smiling Bob, who sports a creepy ear-to-ear grin after taking the "once-a-day tablet for natural male enhancement." In September Enzyte's maker, Berkeley Premium Nutraceuticals of Cincinnati, and its owner, Steven Warshak, were indicted in federal court, but not for selling the pills. Such a case might have given rise to a drawn-out battle of expert witnesses or prickly first- person testimony. The simpler issue presented in the indictment is whether Warshak extracted $100 million over 5 years via a credit card scam. Berkeley's alleged M.O. could be a textbook case in the art of fraud. According to the feds, customers who saw the ads and called to order a free 30-day sample were persuaded to give up their credit card numbers to pay for shipping and handling and soon found themselves receiving and being charged for shipments of Enzyte, Those who complained were given a scripted runaround starting with an offer of more free pills. "No case refunds," said Warshak while instructing employees to remove the company's return address from boxes so customers would have a harder time tracking him down...

Does Enzyte work? Fred Alverson, spokesman for the U.S. attorney in Cincinnati says, "We don't care if it makes you harder than Chinese algebra. That's not part of the case." Warshak, who faces up to 30 years, has pleased not guilty.


This is Bob. Bob is looking... sued. This case is getting more interesting by the day though; ArsTechnica reported on 12/27/06 that Warshak's email was searched by the feds without a warrant, presumably for evidence and not copies of v14gr4 related spam. Think twice about what you're sending through those web mails...

Thursday, January 04, 2007

GOOG $630? Or $315?

What's a fair P/E? What's estimated earnings growth? What's taters, precious?

BusinessWeek article.

What was Cramer valuing it at last year... $800?

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

A F#@%ing Checking Account

A lighter moment:

A crusty old man walks into a bank and says to the woman at the teller window "I want to open a f#@%ing checking account."

The astonished woman replies, "I beg your pardon, sir. I must have misunderstood you. What did you say?"

Listen up, dammit. I said I want to open a f#@%ing checking account now!"

"I'm very sorry sir, but that kind of language is not tolerated in this bank."

The teller leaves the window and goes over to the bank manager to inform him of her situation. The manager agrees that the teller does not have to listen to that foul language.

They both return to the window and the manager asks the old geezer, "Sir, what seems to be the problem here?"

"There is no f#@%ing problem," the man says. "I just won 50 million bucks in the f#@%ing lottery and I want to open a f#@%ing checking account in this f#@%ing bank."

"Oh, I see," says the manager. "And is this f#@%ing bitch giving you a hard time?"

Moral: Money talks with an accent.

Merger Mania Continues

In a melding of restaurants you would never want to eat at, Church's purchases Shoney's for an undisclosed sum. Shoney Bear to learn the Funky Chicken:

The Associated Press

NASHVILLE — An Atlanta-based company that operates Church's Chicken restaurants is acquiring Shoney's Restaurants for an undisclosed amount.

Royal Hospitality Corp., an affiliate of Royal Capital Corp., said it will take over all 282 Shoney's restaurants from Shoney's LLC, which is owned by an affiliate of Dallas-based Lone Star Funds.

Best known for its breakfast bar, Shoney's has 282 locations in 18 states, 230 of which are owned by franchisees. Royal expects to complete the acquisition of the 52 company-owned Shoney's restaurants by the end of the month. The restaurants will continue to be called Shoney's, and the chain's headquarters will remain in Nashville.

There are 13 Shoney's locations in Mississippi, including four in the Jackson metro area.

Royal is the largest franchisee of Church's Chicken with 112 restaurants located in Arizona, California and Texas.

"We all believe that Shoney's can be an even greater brand and can and will return to its glory days as an exciting food destination for millions of satisfied customers across the United States," said David Davoudpour, founder and CEO of Royal Capital.

Shoney's, begun in 1947 with a restaurant in West Virginia, merged with Danner Foods of Nashville in 1971 to become Shoney's Big Boy Enterprises. It became Shoney's Inc. five years later.

Shoney's posted solid sales and growth for decades before faltering in the 1980s as customers complained of poor food and service. The company sold off noncore operations such as its Pargo's and Fifth Quarter chains and closed some of its Shoney's locations.

The Lone Star Funds affiliate took Shoney's private in 2002 after nearly 30 years of public trading. At the time, the chain owned or franchised close to 1,000 Shoney's restaurants in 28 states, and it operated or franchised more than 560 Captain D's seafood restaurants. Lone Star sold the Captain D's chain in 2005.

Centrum Equities, a private equity firm, tried to buy Shoney's last year but then sued to get out of the deal.