Thursday, January 25, 2007

Ford

Record losses again. I didn't bother reading how they accrued them -- I assume they've started paying out the equivalent of Powerball jackpots to retiring employees, not quite sure. It's irrelevant, as the stock didn't move. You'd think that means this news is priced in, but you'd probably be wrong. Every quarter, investors assume "This has to be the worst for Ford, right? It can't get worse from here, so the stock has to go up," then the next quarter it gets worse.

I'd buy puts on this one a couple months out. With reports like this, F is more like a .80 stock than a 8.00 stock. OK, I exaggerate, but my price target is closer to their 52-week low. Or perhaps below that. No disrespect to Alan Mulally, but he's a CEO, not a magician.

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