As far as the options backdating and AAPL goes, I honestly don't think it will lead to Jobs' resignation. However, I think Jobs' departure is already priced in, not because of the options, but because the company has been mum about his pancreatic cancer a couple years ago. If they're not talking, you have to anticipate that he could drop dead any day now. Not that he necessarily will, but if he's not vocal about having a clean bill of health, you have to assume otherwise.
In other words, don't worry about the options scandal; a lot of investors have already envisioned an AAPL without Jobs.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
MSFT, hackers n' ads
Two news bits for MSFT:
1) Vista apparently has more holes than Swiss cheese. Security holes, that is. I won't elaborate because we all expect this from Microsoft.
2) More interestingly, they're planning to make their ads a little bit smarter, much as Google has done; if you use their Live search and their Hotmail (does anyone use either of these products?) expect to start seeing ads targeted to your demographics and interests soon. At present, they're giving advertisers a promotional credit to encourage signups.
I am not sure Microsoft has done anything original, ever. Windows and DOS were ripped off from Apple and Xerox, and nowadays they're just copying Google. Did they not get the memo that Google's growth is slowing down?
1) Vista apparently has more holes than Swiss cheese. Security holes, that is. I won't elaborate because we all expect this from Microsoft.
2) More interestingly, they're planning to make their ads a little bit smarter, much as Google has done; if you use their Live search and their Hotmail (does anyone use either of these products?) expect to start seeing ads targeted to your demographics and interests soon. At present, they're giving advertisers a promotional credit to encourage signups.
I am not sure Microsoft has done anything original, ever. Windows and DOS were ripped off from Apple and Xerox, and nowadays they're just copying Google. Did they not get the memo that Google's growth is slowing down?
Pinochet Pantyhose
A few days old, but Target caved to pressure from the WSJ, IBD and others to remove a Che Guevara item from their shelves. Link.
"What next? Hitler backpacks? Pol Pot cookware? Pinochet pantyhose?" wrote Investor's Business Daily in an editorial earlier this month, citing the Guevara case as a model of "tyrant-chic."
Even the left is happy with the decision, saying Che would never have approved of his mug appearing on Target swag. Incidentally, the Che in the Target image had a pair of headphones photoshopped under his natty beret; what do you think he would've been listening to? Rage Against The Machine is probably a little too corporate for him, as well. Maybe Che would've been a This Bike Is A Pipe Bomb fan. Who knows.
"What next? Hitler backpacks? Pol Pot cookware? Pinochet pantyhose?" wrote Investor's Business Daily in an editorial earlier this month, citing the Guevara case as a model of "tyrant-chic."
Even the left is happy with the decision, saying Che would never have approved of his mug appearing on Target swag. Incidentally, the Che in the Target image had a pair of headphones photoshopped under his natty beret; what do you think he would've been listening to? Rage Against The Machine is probably a little too corporate for him, as well. Maybe Che would've been a This Bike Is A Pipe Bomb fan. Who knows.
Saks: Can A New Look Attract Private Equity?
Saks -- well, they've been streamlining left and right, haven't they? Dumping their less profitable chains, spewing out cash via special dividends -- they're a lean, mean luxury retail machine at this point...
In January, they'll be unveilng a new logo. Kind of MoMA, abstract, eye-catching. Check it out:
Says Pentagram, the firm who did the design work: "We took the cursive logo, redrew it with the help of font designer Joe Finocchiaro, and placed it in a black square. Then, we subdivided that square into a grid of 64 smaller squares."
Funky ain't it? They've never had much in the way of branding; their logo has changed constantly over the years. Who knows how long this ultramodern take on it will hang around, but hopefully long enough to get them a bid. With a market cap of 2.5bn, and luxury biz still solid, I consider them a buyout target.
In January, they'll be unveilng a new logo. Kind of MoMA, abstract, eye-catching. Check it out:
Says Pentagram, the firm who did the design work: "We took the cursive logo, redrew it with the help of font designer Joe Finocchiaro, and placed it in a black square. Then, we subdivided that square into a grid of 64 smaller squares."
Funky ain't it? They've never had much in the way of branding; their logo has changed constantly over the years. Who knows how long this ultramodern take on it will hang around, but hopefully long enough to get them a bid. With a market cap of 2.5bn, and luxury biz still solid, I consider them a buyout target.
Saturday, December 23, 2006
The Beta Tester Investor: MSFT Thoughts
I've been beta testing both Office 2007 and Windows Vista for my employer. I would like to articulate a few thoughts:
Office 2007 is a decent product... good, even. It takes most of the pulldown-menu actions you'd typically perform and renders them as modular selections in a "ribbon" at the top of the page. It has enhanced collaboration abilities and seems fairly stable. It also does its very best to create documents in a format incompatible with previous versions of Office.
Vista, however... while corporate users could afford to upgrade their computers to the specs necessary to run it, it's not targeted to them. It's targeted to home users who don't know how to keep viruses and spyware out of their system. Aero looks slick, but does anyone really need 3-D and transparent windowing?
If Vista is in widespread use a year from now I will be surprised. Office 2007 has more potential and is a worthwhile upgrade if you have a moderately powerful system. If you think either one will catch on, I recommend investing in the companies who will benefit most from users upgrading their systems. MSFT's market cap has increased a lot over the last six months. A jump from 25 to 29-30 is a big deal in a stock with this many shares outstanding.
Office 2007 is a decent product... good, even. It takes most of the pulldown-menu actions you'd typically perform and renders them as modular selections in a "ribbon" at the top of the page. It has enhanced collaboration abilities and seems fairly stable. It also does its very best to create documents in a format incompatible with previous versions of Office.
Vista, however... while corporate users could afford to upgrade their computers to the specs necessary to run it, it's not targeted to them. It's targeted to home users who don't know how to keep viruses and spyware out of their system. Aero looks slick, but does anyone really need 3-D and transparent windowing?
If Vista is in widespread use a year from now I will be surprised. Office 2007 has more potential and is a worthwhile upgrade if you have a moderately powerful system. If you think either one will catch on, I recommend investing in the companies who will benefit most from users upgrading their systems. MSFT's market cap has increased a lot over the last six months. A jump from 25 to 29-30 is a big deal in a stock with this many shares outstanding.
Liquid Assets
And no, I'm not going to post that little song about the world being awash in liquidity because I know you've already heard it...
Reuters reports investing in wine is all the rage at the moment, mostly in Bordeaux and not just in the futures; cellars are filling up case by case at every hedgie home in Greenwich and surrounding neighborhoods.
As it says in the article, it's like art but in order to enjoy it, you have to destroy it. Maybe it's not a bad idea to invest in something for which demand will stay roughly stable but supply will necessarily dwindle.
Reuters reports investing in wine is all the rage at the moment, mostly in Bordeaux and not just in the futures; cellars are filling up case by case at every hedgie home in Greenwich and surrounding neighborhoods.
As it says in the article, it's like art but in order to enjoy it, you have to destroy it. Maybe it's not a bad idea to invest in something for which demand will stay roughly stable but supply will necessarily dwindle.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Another Type Of Agricultural Commodity
From today's DR:
"In Europe, drugs are less expensive than beer or café," says a headline article in La Nacion. "An ecstasy pill costs the same as a of beer," the article explains. "A line of cocaine is less than a cup of coffee."
Everything else may be going up. But there's a major deflation in drug prices. Marijuana is down 12% in the last five years. Heroin prices are off 45%. Amphetamines have gone down 20%.
How come?
Globalization. Better supply chain management. More competition and across-border movement.
Interestingly, this report comes from Reuters today: "Marijuana top U.S. cash crop."
"U.S. growers produce nearly $35 billion worth of marijuana annually, making the illegal drug the country's largest cash crop, bigger than corn and wheat combined, an advocate of medical marijuana use said in a study released on Monday."
"In Europe, drugs are less expensive than beer or café," says a headline article in La Nacion. "An ecstasy pill costs the same as a of beer," the article explains. "A line of cocaine is less than a cup of coffee."
Everything else may be going up. But there's a major deflation in drug prices. Marijuana is down 12% in the last five years. Heroin prices are off 45%. Amphetamines have gone down 20%.
How come?
Globalization. Better supply chain management. More competition and across-border movement.
Interestingly, this report comes from Reuters today: "Marijuana top U.S. cash crop."
"U.S. growers produce nearly $35 billion worth of marijuana annually, making the illegal drug the country's largest cash crop, bigger than corn and wheat combined, an advocate of medical marijuana use said in a study released on Monday."
Thursday, December 07, 2006
It's Gonna Be An H-Bomb Christmas
Arnold, in California, #1 uses an *X-mas* tree, #2 powers it with the alternative energy favorite of the business right, *hydrogen*.
Here's how I imagine his speech went:
"Here in Cally-fournya, it is full of hippies who wanted an alternative fuel winter display. So I picked a Christmas tree that uses hydrogen cells to spit on the other winter holidays, if there are any. Are there any, Maria? Oh, yes. Boxing Day. Boxing Day is fine. Unlike Boxing Day, Hydrogen is abundant on Earth. I will lead the charge to mine it from the moon, as well, and perhaps cut a trench that looks like Ronald Reagan. Also, Maria has just passed me a memo that my speech has been too pro-Christy-annie-ty. When I'm done giving her the 'you need a boob job' look, I'll respond. (significant pause) Okay...wait... (pause) Okay. In order to pacify the girly men, we will balance by selecting carols that do not endorse Christmas. Who knows 'Swarm of Rats?' "
Story
Hydrogen's been the quietest of the alternative energies thusfar, I think.
Here's how I imagine his speech went:
"Here in Cally-fournya, it is full of hippies who wanted an alternative fuel winter display. So I picked a Christmas tree that uses hydrogen cells to spit on the other winter holidays, if there are any. Are there any, Maria? Oh, yes. Boxing Day. Boxing Day is fine. Unlike Boxing Day, Hydrogen is abundant on Earth. I will lead the charge to mine it from the moon, as well, and perhaps cut a trench that looks like Ronald Reagan. Also, Maria has just passed me a memo that my speech has been too pro-Christy-annie-ty. When I'm done giving her the 'you need a boob job' look, I'll respond. (significant pause) Okay...wait... (pause) Okay. In order to pacify the girly men, we will balance by selecting carols that do not endorse Christmas. Who knows 'Swarm of Rats?' "
Story
Hydrogen's been the quietest of the alternative energies thusfar, I think.
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Silly Investor, Seagate Is For Porn
At a recent corporate dinner in San Francisco, the Texan CEO produced a quotable line edgy enough to give any PR people in the immediate vicinity an instant heart attack. In his exact words: "Let's face it, we're not changing the world. We're building a product that helps people buy more crap - and watch porn."
Or, as he puts it more diplomatically when sober, it's the content that's important.
Story Link
Or, as he puts it more diplomatically when sober, it's the content that's important.
Story Link
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Private Equity's Hungry
Andrew Ross Sorkin, who writes the DealBook articles for the New York Times business section recently floated the opinion that Wall St.'s appetite for private equity deal may be so insatiable that the list of "potential targets being bandied about" now included Viacom, Gap, Nike, Dell, Home Depot, Texas Instuments, EchoStar, Liz Claiborne, and Microsoft.
Some of these companies have truly ridonkulous market caps for this sort of thing (MSFT). Some of these companies are in need of a complete makeover and thus better off dying a thousand deaths (GPS). Some of the others have potential.
Some of these companies have truly ridonkulous market caps for this sort of thing (MSFT). Some of these companies are in need of a complete makeover and thus better off dying a thousand deaths (GPS). Some of the others have potential.
CHK It Out: Borrowing In Euros
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is selling EUR 400MM worth of senior notes on the Irish Stock Exchange. Interesting play.
The money will be used to pay down revolving debt, hard to complain about that. They indicated there is strong "demand on the continent" for opportunities to invest in their company and that this move was urged by their debt underwriters. It's a strong-euro kind of market these days, so your guess is as good as mine: do they expect a strong dollar by 2016, or is this just one more point to make in the "petroeuro" case?
The money will be used to pay down revolving debt, hard to complain about that. They indicated there is strong "demand on the continent" for opportunities to invest in their company and that this move was urged by their debt underwriters. It's a strong-euro kind of market these days, so your guess is as good as mine: do they expect a strong dollar by 2016, or is this just one more point to make in the "petroeuro" case?
Monday, November 27, 2006
No One Is Talking About Project Turquoise
Not in the U.S., anyway. Why?
What's uninteresting about the fact that seven major brokerages are attempting to create a stock exchange to compete with the LSE?
The major players are Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS. They're responsible for about HALF of the business on the LSE right now.
Exchanges are -red hot- right now. Is this factored into, say, Goldman Sachs' astronomical share price? If not, is GS going to 250? 300?
Oh, and here's another thing. Think of how many companies are going public in London to avoid the regulations in the US. If you can go public on this exchange and avoid SarbOx, would you?
What's uninteresting about the fact that seven major brokerages are attempting to create a stock exchange to compete with the LSE?
The major players are Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS. They're responsible for about HALF of the business on the LSE right now.
Exchanges are -red hot- right now. Is this factored into, say, Goldman Sachs' astronomical share price? If not, is GS going to 250? 300?
Oh, and here's another thing. Think of how many companies are going public in London to avoid the regulations in the US. If you can go public on this exchange and avoid SarbOx, would you?
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Delta to USAirways: Fuck a Duck
Delta sent out a press release this morning to all its customers addressing USAirways' buyout attempts which included this language:
But you should know we are concerned that this particular transaction would not be in the best interest of our many stakeholders including our customers, employees, travel partners, and the communities we serve. We are moving full steam ahead with our own plan to emerge from Chapter 11 as a strong, independent, stand-alone airline dedicated to providing you with world-class service and superior performance.
Sounds harsh, right? There's something in the language though that got my attention. Note "This particular transaction," folks. Stay tuned to this one.
But you should know we are concerned that this particular transaction would not be in the best interest of our many stakeholders including our customers, employees, travel partners, and the communities we serve. We are moving full steam ahead with our own plan to emerge from Chapter 11 as a strong, independent, stand-alone airline dedicated to providing you with world-class service and superior performance.
Sounds harsh, right? There's something in the language though that got my attention. Note "This particular transaction," folks. Stay tuned to this one.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Also, Insure This
I was in AIG just long enough to profit from their colossal earnings last week (high premiums + no hurricanes = mad cash, naturally). However, when every day my news on the stock is flooded with "Form 144: Filing To Sell" I have to wonder wtf is up with all the insider dumping. So I'm out.
Oil's Too Big For Its Britches
The prices of some of the oil companies vs. oil itself have gotten out of whack. XOM, CVX -- hell, most of the OIH in general (maybe not the refiners like VLO, but still...) -- are trading higher than they were when Lebanon and Israel were exchanging bombs and sending oil into the 70s.
XOM puts anyone?
Note also the impending offshore drilling bill the lame ducks may pass after Turkey Day. That one affects oil as well as natural gas.
XOM puts anyone?
Note also the impending offshore drilling bill the lame ducks may pass after Turkey Day. That one affects oil as well as natural gas.
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Not Quite Granola
Check your organic foods section for this:
Wheat-free! Made from hedges, I assume. R said "Naturally, it gives you gas."
Wheat-free! Made from hedges, I assume. R said "Naturally, it gives you gas."
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Published In Hindsight
Ah, NOW the lenders get together and publish a consumer guide on determining if interest-only mortgages and other nontraditional products are for you.
Link to the Fed's press release
Townhouse, anyone?
"The publication stresses the importance of understanding key mortgage loan terms, warns of the risks consumers may face, and urges borrowers to be realistic about whether they can handle future payment increases. If consumers are not comfortable with these risks, the publication suggests that they ask about other mortgage products."
Yeah.
Numerous links to the document available on the Fed PR page.
Link to the Fed's press release
Townhouse, anyone?
"The publication stresses the importance of understanding key mortgage loan terms, warns of the risks consumers may face, and urges borrowers to be realistic about whether they can handle future payment increases. If consumers are not comfortable with these risks, the publication suggests that they ask about other mortgage products."
Yeah.
Numerous links to the document available on the Fed PR page.
Good News for Mrs. Lay
...even if Kenny's not available for comment:
Ken Lay's conviction vacated
So the government spent a fortune on a trial and conviction, and now they have no chance to recover any of that cash. Does that now make this the most expensive demonization on record? For Halloween, should I wear a Ken Lay mask and my "How's Your Aspen?" t-shirt?
Ken Lay's conviction vacated
So the government spent a fortune on a trial and conviction, and now they have no chance to recover any of that cash. Does that now make this the most expensive demonization on record? For Halloween, should I wear a Ken Lay mask and my "How's Your Aspen?" t-shirt?
Monday, October 09, 2006
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