Bowling Alone on YouTube

I could use this space to talk about YouTube's IPO aspirations, but that's really a limited subject until they give me any sign they're going to turn a profit. Instead, I'll point out this article on the "1% rule":

1% of visitors to any "interactive" site actually create content (Guardian)

Using numbers from YouTube, Yahoo Groups and Wikipedia, the article suggests that slightly less than 1% of users on these sites will create content, around 10% will offer comments or suggestions, and the other 89% will view passively. Obviously, you want a balance of all of these groups; if YouTube has 20 million unique users, having all of them create videos would result in much banality and duplication.

The group probably most essential to survival is the creators, and the question is how to get the creators to stick around; my suggestion would be to fully embrace the blatant role of comment-whoring as a motivator, and look for strategies to get the 89% of passive users to become active participants at the comment level -- yielding sincere, organic motivation for your creators.

Profits, Cheek By Jowl

I feel a little bad for Lee Raymond -- even though he's no longer CEO of Exxon, this morning Drudge ran the infamous "massive goiter" picture of him with the story about Exxon's record profits:



You know, if the Sidney Reso case had happened recently someone would be running pictures of Sid's corpse with the caption "SHEDDING BLOOD FOR EXXON OIL MONEY" under it.

Credit Is The New Housing

Yesterday the FDIC released a whopping 29-page report about future credit losses by banks. It really shouldn't take 29 pages to say "what goes up must come down." The more eloquent terminology for this would be "inflection point," because despite recent increases in commercial loan growth, it's unlikely to sufficiently compensate for the oncoming decreases in consumer loan growth.

Additionally, think of the cash on hand at most firms! You expect commercial loan growth to even come close to making up for consumers?

You realize people (me included) have been screaming this for a while now, kinda like the housing bubble where some people (me included) were blithering about its demise a year or two before it actually started to happen. It's hard to call a top, but that's what the FDIC is doing. Analysts are now rushing to release reports saying "yeah, they're right. This will happen -- eventually," because that's what analysts do, and they'll be right -- eventually.

Calvin Ayre's Crystal Ball

I was bored last night since I couldn't go out in the rain, so I looked at bodog.com to see what current events you could bet on. (I'm not a gambler and had to teach myself how to read a moneyline in order to even know what the hell was going on.) Most of them are end-of-2006 type things, but this one caught my eye:

Bet On: Will US President George Bush end his boycott of the NAACP and make a speech at the group's national convention?

It worked out to roughly 2:1 odds in favor of him choosing to speak. (No odds are available on whether or not he will give Louis Farrakhan a neckrub anytime soon.) Sure enough, I checked Drudge this morning and there was an announcement that Bush plans to do it.

When I think "accurate predictor of future events" I don't really think of Calvin Ayre and his Playboy Mansion compound in Costa Rica, but I do like to see futures markets make accurate predictions. DARPA wanted to do this to help predict terrorist attacks. Cal's apparently not touching that one with a ten-foot pole but he's got a few items on his site about closing Guantanamo and whether or not UBL or Hoffa will have their head found first.

I think he should let us bet on whether or not if he ever returns to the US again he'll get nabbed like the BetOnSports guy.

Goldman Is The Sex

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the blue chip investment bank, wants a Netherlands man to change the name of a sex-themed Web site called goldmansex.com.

Link

The owner's last name isn't even Goldman -- it's Muller -- and he claims he got the nickname "Goldman" based on his overall luckiness. I think he's full of shit, especially after looking at the site and noticing he supposedly caters to business travelers. You have to wonder, though, if Goldman Sachs will prevail in this lawsuit. How likely is anyone to be confused and think that GS is in the business of providing strippers and escorts? Well, I mean, now that David Pacjin is off the payroll...

The De Minimis Turkey Leg Exception

Wal-Mart, who formerly prosecuted anyone who stole more than $3 worth of merchandise, is raising the threshold to $25: Link to CNNMoney story

"The paper said the change in policy will allow Wal-Mart to concentrate on theft by professional shoplifters and its own employees. The paper said those two groups steal the bulk of merchandise from the chain."

Makes economic sense, though it can't ever be good to have the de minimis amount publicized like this. Honestly, there's not much at your average Wal-Mart that would fit in your coat that's priced OVER $25; it's almost like giving compulsive shoplifters license to do whatever.

Haute Topic

Today's WSJ mentioned Hot Topic as a potential target to be taken private. They said it might happen if goth fashion came back in.

It's hard to get more darque than the "pre-spring 2007" collections I'm seeing. A sample, this from Givenchy:



Their balance sheets are pretty clean, I think. It's a consideration.

FT Axes Internets Division

The Financial Times, in a cost-cutting move, cuts 50 from their staff and now expects writers to produce content for both the print and online editions: Link

Their budget for salmon dye, apparently, is unaffected.

When Self Parking Is More Prestigious Than Valet

Those crazy kids at BMW have developed technology that enables a car to park itself. PARALLEL park itself, at that.

Watch the video (YouTube)

In ten years, this will be as ubiquitous as Tiptronic. Oh, wait.

Still, I want it.

ShortAirBus

...puts its head down, ribbits softly, and ponders how to extricate Boeing's schlong from its eye:

Link

PARIS - Airbus said Monday it won 117 plane orders in the first half of the year, less than a quarter of the orders announced to date by U.S. rival Boeing Co.

Orders fell from 276 in the same period of last year, a sharper drop than the broad full-year decline predicted by both jet makers after record sales in 2005.

Note also the speculation that the recent Russian crash was due to faulty brakes: IHT article

No word on whether or not Airbus will surrender their delayed A380 and inefficient A340. You knew I'd sneak a "surrender" joke in here somewhere. Sucks to be EADS, though they did at least sell some copters to the US recently. LBJ probably rolled in his grave at that one.

License and Registration

In China, certain license plate numbers are fetching big bucks.

Communism was never able to quash superstition, and now, the more 8's you have in your license plate or phone number, the more valuable it is. Combine that superstition with the rush of status-symbol vanity among the world's newest crop of pseudocapitalists, and you have plates going at government auction for $10,000 (and, supposedly, in the secondary market, some being offered at $100,000).

A recent WSJ article mentioned a marriage boom-bust cycle going on in China right now related to lucky and unlucky years, so the media is really trying to drill home this point. They're superstitious, okay? List your business contact address as 444 4th St., or incorporate in the Year of the Rooster, and you won't be able to sell a gat-damn thing in China. Got it?

Of course, in America the number 4 is the best number. Well, it is when you hold down the shift key on your keyboard and press it...