I was bored last night since I couldn't go out in the rain, so I looked at bodog.com to see what current events you could bet on. (I'm not a gambler and had to teach myself how to read a moneyline in order to even know what the hell was going on.) Most of them are end-of-2006 type things, but this one caught my eye:
Bet On: Will US President George Bush end his boycott of the NAACP and make a speech at the group's national convention?
It worked out to roughly 2:1 odds in favor of him choosing to speak. (No odds are available on whether or not he will give Louis Farrakhan a neckrub anytime soon.) Sure enough, I checked Drudge this morning and there was an announcement that Bush plans to do it.
When I think "accurate predictor of future events" I don't really think of Calvin Ayre and his Playboy Mansion compound in Costa Rica, but I do like to see futures markets make accurate predictions. DARPA wanted to do this to help predict terrorist attacks. Cal's apparently not touching that one with a ten-foot pole but he's got a few items on his site about closing Guantanamo and whether or not UBL or Hoffa will have their head found first.
I think he should let us bet on whether or not if he ever returns to the US again he'll get nabbed like the BetOnSports guy.
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